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congressional elections important?Because, for better or for worse, the federal government has a profound impact on not just Americans, but on the lives of people around the world.
When Americans vote on Tuesday, they will choose which of the two political parties will rule the U.
S.
Congress.
What's at stake is control over government spending, the regulatory environment for business, and the public policy agenda for the next two years.
Despite six years of solid Republican control of the White House and Congress, it is important to remember that America is a country divided down the middle in politics.
In 2004, George Bush was re-elected with just 50.
7% of the vote - a slight improvement over his 2000 margin of 49.
3%.
In the Senate, Republicans have a margin of 5%.
In the House, their margin is 1%.
Going into this election, Republicans have been on the defense for months.
Nearly 80% of the competitive House seats and 7 of the 8 competitive Senate seats are Republican-held.
The most recent polls on a "generic ballot" have voters preferring Democratic candidates for Congress over Republican candidates by around 9%.
It is the most adverse political environment the Republican Party has faced since Watergate - and the first time in a decade that the Democrats have a real chance of taking back control of the House and Senate.
With the stakes so high and the competition so intense, it's no wonder that this campaign has been so expensive.
Over the past year, candidates and political parties have spent nearly two billion dollars to take over the airwaves in their attempts to secure - or maintain - political power.
Though President Bush's name will not appear on any ballot, the midterm election is clearly a referendum on him.
Though some races will ultimately be decided by idiosyncratic issues - personal controversy or poorly run campaigns - this election is largely nationalized around the question of whether or not we are headed in the right direction in Iraq.
A clear majority says no.
Whether it's enough for the Democrats to win is a different question.
In addition to Iraq, the unpopularity of Congress due to various fundraising scandals (and one sex scandal) is driving the theme of this year's election: change.
Recent polls show that 74% of Americans think that Congress is out of touch and 50% think it is corrupt.
As a result, both Democrats and Republicans alike are running on the need for a change of direction in government - a position inherently more dangerous for incumbents in the majority than for challengers.
At this point, in the final days of the election, the focus of the pundits has shifted to voter turnout.
A key factor is not just how candidates stand in the polls, but which voters actually show up to cast a ballot.
Traditionally, Democrats were stronger in getting their supporters out to vote.
But in recent elections, Republicans have seized the advantage by aggressively turning out record breaking numbers of Christian conservatives.
This year, among the best measures for predicting turnout strength - voter certainty about who they are going to vote for and overall interest in the election / enthusiasm for voting by supporters of each party - Democrats seem to have the enthusiasm on their side.
But, as the saying goes, the only poll that matters is on Election Day.
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