The best magazine
Rookie catchers aren't supposed to start hitting immediately -- so soon we never had a chance to acquire them on the waiver wire.
When Buster Posey and Carlos Santana got their much-awaited calls to the big leagues this season, fantasy owners jumped at the chance to pick them up, which in most cases involving rookies is as futile a move as looking for a stud starter in Baltimore or patience in New York.
The Giants' Posey and the Indians' Santana have been different from the get-go.
Posey had three hits in each of his first two games. Santana had a homer and three RBI in his second contest.
They haven't stopped since.
They've been so good we need to alter our expectations for stud prospects who get a much-awaited promotion from the minors.
They've been so good they lead this month's edition of Buy and Sell. Here, we're going to make five bold batting predictions for the rest of the season. (All stats are through July 21.)
As Ron Jaworski would say, let's go to the tape ...
1. Two rookie catchers will be considered among the best three at their position.
You know the two, but do you realize how ridiculous the 600 at-bat projections are for Posey and Santana? Calculate their statistics through July 21 over 600 at-bats, and here are the results:
Posey: .349 average, .944 OPS, 29 home runs, 108 RBI, 98 runs.
Santana: .282, .978, 31 homers, 97 RBI, 113 runs, 10 steals.
When I ranked the top 100 players at midseason, I put Santana at No.
89 overall and No. 4 at catcher, and Posey one slot back at Nos. 90 and 5, respectively.
That now seems too low, especially in Posey's case. If you could pick one catcher to play for the rest of the season, would you select one of the two rookies, or Joe Mauer, Brian McCann or Victor Martinez?
My guess is the majority of fantasy owners would pick one of the rookies. And with good reason.
In July, Posey is batting .435 with 17 runs, seven homers and 20 RBI in 69 at-bats. In that same span, Santana has shown signs of being a rookie, batting .220, but then there's this: He has seven more walks (19) than strikeouts (12) this month, so we should believe he's going to be just fine.
2. Rickie Weeks will lead all second basemen in home runs and RBI.
OK, he's already close to accomplishing this feat. The Brewer is one RBI behind Robinson Cano (61-60) and one homer ahead of the Yankee (18-17). But he's Rickie Weeks, career .252 hitter whose best asset used to be his ability to steal bases.
His current numbers seem out of line, but I think they're for real. If you take Weeks' numbers in his 2,152 career at-bats and calculate them over a 600 at-bat season, you get 22 homers, 24 steals, 68 RBI and 111 runs.
Since June 1, he's batting .298 with 32 runs, 10 homers and 30 RBI.
If you drafted him to steal bases, you're getting a different player. Weeks, who stole a combined 44 bases in 2007 and '08, has swiped eight bags in 132 games since 2009.
His power production should ease your concerns about the drop in steals, and it should be even better than Cano's the rest of the way.
3. Gaby Sanchez will be a must-start in any format.
First, you need to acquire the Marlins first baseman, who is owned in only 41.2 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.
He has struggled some in July, batting .268 with four runs, two homers and five RBI in 56 at-bats. But Sanchez was great in June (.375, 16 runs, four homers, 16 RBI, 1.013 OPS in 104 at-bats) and he has hit everywhere he's been.
Sanchez, who is in his first full big-league season, was a career .302 hitter in the minors. His batting averages at each minor-league stop, counting each season separately: .355, .333, .317, .182 (in 55 at-bats), .279, .314 and .290.
He's playing at a position that's absolutely loaded with sluggers. Still, Sanchez should be a starter in mixed formats.
4. Adrian Beltre will be a top-five third baseman.
If you clicked on the midseason position position rankings, you already know I believe this. But it needs to be emphasized, especially after some owners, including this sometimes fickle one, benched Beltre following the All-Star break because of concerns about a hamstring injury.
Since missing Boston's game July 15, all Beltre has done is hit .458 with three homers and six RBI in 24 at-bats.
He's been consistent (his batting averages in April, May and June: .338, .333 and .376) and he's done everything but steal bases. Through July 21, Beltre was batting .339 with 47 runs, 16 homers, 61 RBI and a .937 OPS.
He's had only one year with 100 or more RBI, and he was awful last season in Seattle (.265, eight homers, 44 RBI, .683 OPS).
This season, however, calls to mind Beltre's monstrous 2004. That year, Beltre hit .334 with 48 homers, 121 RBI and 104 runs with the Dodgers.
He won't reach those power numbers this season, but 25 to 28 homers, 100-plus RBI and a batting average in the .330 range look better than 2010 Alex Rodriguez.
5. Aramis Ramirez will lead all third basemen in homers and RBI in the second half.
On its own, that statement doesn't seem surprising for a player who has had 31 or more home runs four times and 101 or more RBI six times in his career.
Until you consider the Cubs third baseman went on the disabled list June 7 with a .168 batting average, 17 runs, five homers and 23 RBI in 179 at-bats. He struggled so badly with a thumb injury that he was dropped in many leagues.
Exhibit 333 on why you don't give up on a former stud in June: Since returning from the DL on June 25, Ramirez is batting .345 with 20 runs, 10 homers and 25 RBI in 87 at-bats.
Since the All-Star break, he has scored eight runs, hit five homers and driven in 15 runs in 29 at-bats.
Not to pile on A-Rod, but whom would you rather have right now: Rodriguez, Beltre or Ramirez?
A better question: Did A-Rod come in third when you put the three third basemen in order of preference?
We'll be back soon with five bold pitching predictions, along with Waiver-Wire Picks and the Planner for Week 17. Until then, follow me on Twitter for the latest updates.
Source: ...