The best magazine
In fact with Tesla Motors stock going out of sight -- it appears that a lot of other people think the same way.
Let me begin by stating that the battery powered TESLA car is a remarkable technological achievement.
Although I've mentioned this in a previous article, I need to repeat it here.
When compared to the battery powered Nissan Leaf plug in car, Tesla Motors has managed to extend the vehicle's range from about 70 miles to about 265 miles, and reduced the fast recharging time from about two hours to about 25 minutes for an over the road half charge.
However, the TESLA car is still quite expensive -- $986 per month lease price for the least expensive Model S.
Moreover, since the lithium ion battery is very expensive and might only last half of the car's life, the purchase price includes a 125 thousand mile battery replacement guarantee.
With that being said -- let's consider the hydrogen fuel cell powered car alternative.
The first, and most important, aspect to consider is the 25 minute over the road half charge, versus a refill of hydrogen gas in about 3 minutes.
To me this is the Achilles heel that will relegate battery powered cars to only a niche market -- especially with equivalent mass produced pricing.
Also -- unless the life expectancy of the lithium ion battery can be significantly increased, or its cost significantly decreased, most people won't want a low trade in value.
Conversely the trade in value of hydrogen fuel cell cars will be enhanced as a result of the recovery value of platinum used to coat the fuel cell's electrodes.
That's not to say that some recovery value can be obtained from the cobalt used in the lithium ion battery.
In any event, it appears that the trend today is to use nickel metal hydride batteries (a la the Toyota Prius) -- rather than lithium ion because of lower cost and much longer life.
In fact Toyota and Honda have determined that hydrogen fuel cells should be used in conjunction with these batteries.
The reason is that fuel cells are most fuel efficient when operating at constant power output.
Therefore, when power demand is low the fuel cell can be used to charge the battery.
This brings up another important point -- efficiency.
While constantly running fuel cells are about 60 percent efficient, batteries are close to 90 percent efficient.
But here is the glitch.
The batteries are charged by electric power plants (currently about 40 percent in the United States power plants are fueled by coal!) that have difficulty reaching 50 percent efficiency.
When you multiply 90 percent by 50 percent you get -- at best -- 45 percent overall battery efficiency -- but more likely 40 percent.
Whereas, when the 60 percent efficient fuel cell charges the 90 percent efficient battery (in the combined fuel cell and battery car) -- the overall battery efficiency is about 54 percent.
If I were to guess at TESLA's future, it makes sense to me that fuel cell range extenders will eventually be incorporated into the design -- especially when over the road hydrogen fuel becomes commonplace.
Moreover, if the cost and life expectancy of lithium ion batteries does not significantly improve -- a nickel metal hydride battery will also be used either as a replacement or as a supplement.
Source: ...