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Job Numbers Uninspired

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Labor Day weekend events overshadowed the August jobs report. August non-farm job growth fell short of the 150,000 forecast needed for stable numbers, and, at 120,000, is far below the number needed for significant job growth.

Total private employment in August was 109,910,000 -- that is 1.5 percent less than the 111,560,000 employed in the private sector in January 2001. At the current rate, the total number of private sector jobs in December will be around 110,400,000, making President Bush the second president in history to lose private sector jobs in his four-year stewardship of the economy.


Private employment for June and July was revised upward slightly. Both months had been forecast at 250,000 job growth. June's revised number was 112,000; July's, 60,000.

Note: all job data are seasonally adjusted.

Government jobs, on the other hand, continue to grow, although at a slow rate. In January 2001, there were 20,828,000 public sector jobs. The preliminary number for August was 21,565,000 -- an increase of 3.5 percent, suggesting his first term number will be greater in both percent and absolute numbers than Clinton's first term. In Clinton's first term, weekly public sector jobs increased 3.5 percent; in his first term, the increase was 4.8 percent.

Seasonally adjusted weekly private sector wages, in 1982 dollars, was $278.48 (preliminary) in July, an increase from June's $275.63. Compare that with January 2001, when President Bush took office: $274.64, a 1.4 percent increase. In Clinton's second term, weekly private sector wages increased 5.4 percent; in his first term, the increase was 9.7 percent.

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