Proper Bluff Calling In Poker: Math And Logic

Picking off bluffs feels great, but the truth of the matter is that most players call far too loosely when they suspect a player is bluffing. We're going to take a common-sense look at the math and logic involved in picking off bluffs, and hopefully following that discussion you'll have a sounder sense of whether or not calling a suspicious bet is a great play or a quick route to brokeville.

Let's get started with the math of calling a bluff. We'll concern ourselves for the purposes of this article with bluffs that only involve you calling one bet an all in or a river bet, for example as bluffs that involve multiple streets are generally more complex (and costly) scenarios.

The math of bluff-calling when there's only one bet to call is very simple, but most people do not consider it when they are tempted to call what they perceive as a bluff. Let's be honest the only thing most people think of is how awesome it's going to be when they catch the bluffer in the act, or how terrible they're going to feel if they don't call, the nagging suspicion that they were outplayed gnawing at them the whole way home from the casino.

Here's the rough outline. To determine whether or not a call of a potential bluff will be profitable, you need two numbers the price you're getting to call and the probability that your opponent is bluffing. Let's start with the first, as it's the easiest number to arrive at. The price you're getting on the call is simply this: the total amount of the pot divided by the amount you have to call. So, if the pot (including your opponents bet) is 2000 and you need to call 200, you're getting 101 to call. Put another way, the call needs to be correct 1 time for every ten times it's wrong to be a break even call. Why? When you're right, you win 2000 chips. When you're wrong, you lose 200.

The next number is a bit more difficult. How can you determine how often the opponent is bluffing? Coming up with an exact number is probably not possible, but when you have the first number the price you're getting on the call in mind, you can at least ask yourself the question is my opponent really going to be bluffing 10% of the time or less? (taken from our example above). While you may not be able to pull a number out of the air regarding the potential that your opponent is bluffing, you'll be surprised how accurately you'll be able to answer a question like the one above intuitively.

So, to review: before you call a bluff, think for a second about how often you have to be correct for the call to be profitable in the long term. Once you have that number, be honest with yourself about the chances that your opponent is bluffing as often as he needs to be for your call to be profitable. If you react to potential bluffs with this logic and common sense as opposed to emotion, you'll find yourself making correct calls more often.